It took five weeks for it to happen, but the Road to 272 Bets finally had a profitable performance. Not only were we profitable in Week 5, but we cashed in on two moneyline underdogs on the Broncos to take down the Eagles and the Patriots to pull off the big upset on Sunday Night Football.
We're not back in the green for the season yet, but we've taken a significant step in the right direction. We have 15 games to bet on in Week 6, so let's see if we can keep the positive momentum moving.
Let's dive into my best bet for every game this week.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
Road to 272 Bets Week 5 Record
8-6 (+5.25 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
34-43-1 (-6.39 units)NFL Week 6 Best Bets for Every GameEagles vs. Giants Prediction
I was correct in my evaluation of the Eagles last week in saying that they weren't nearly as good as their record indicated. While I still believe that, I wouldn't go as far as betting on the Giants to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Still, I certainly won't be laying more than a touchdown on them on the road in a divisional game on Thursday night. The Eagles are still 28th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.9, two spots below the Giants at -0.8.
While the Giants' run defense is a cause for concern against an Eagles' team that relies on their run game, that's not enough for me to lay this many points on Philadelphia. The Eagles aren't, by any metric, as good as they were last season, and I'll continue to fade them until the betting market adjusts or until they start playing at the elite level they played at in 2024.
Broncos vs. Jets Prediction
It's time to buy low on the New York Jets. They certainly aren't a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they're better than their winless record shows. They've been able to run the ball successfully at times, ranking fifth in rushing success rate, and would rank high in EPA as well if it weren't for their fumbles. Now, they take on a Broncos' defense that can be run on. The Broncos are 14th in opponent rush success rate and 14th in defensive Rush DVOA.
DVOA doesn't like this Broncos' defense as much as the simple metrics do, ranking them just 16th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. If that holds true, the Jets should be able to do enough offensively to cover as 7.5-point underdogs..
Patriots vs. Saints Prediction
I've been on the "Spencer Rattle isn't that bad" train for the past two weeks, and the Saints quarterback continues to climb up quarterback rankings, now ranking above the likes of Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, and Jayden Daniels in EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected). With that being said, I don't have much faith in the Saints' defense, so I'm going to bet the OVER in their Week 6 game against the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are built to be the perfect OVER team. The Patriots rank 10th in EPA per play but 23rd in opponent EPA per play. When looking at the advanced metric called DVOA, these two defenses rank 27th and 29th. I'm surprised the total is set in the mid-40s, so give me the OVER.
Cowboys vs. Panthers Prediction
It's so hard to justify laying points on the Dallas Cowboys this season. Yes, their offense has been fantastic to start this season, but their defense has been so bad that it's hard for them to win by margin. Their defense is 31st in DVOA, 32nd in opponent EPA, and 31st in opponent success rate. In this game, the Cowboys hit the road to take on a Panthers team that has been better defensively than you'd think. Carolina is fourth in the NFL in opponent success rate, which could prove pivotal when taking on a banged-up Cowboys offense.
Dallas was missing CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin, Tyler Guyton, and Tyler Booker last week. While they were able to overcome those injuries, if they're missing those players again in Week 6, the Panthers will be in a great spot to cover this spread.
Chargers vs. Dolphins Prediction
The Los Angeles Chargers have an offensive line problem with their top two offensive tackles out. While that will hurt them against any team that can generate pressure on the quarterback, I don't have much of a concern about that happening against this Dolphins team. The Dolphins' defense is dead last in defensive DVOA, 31st in opponent yards per play, 31st in opponent EPA, and last in opponent success rate.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense are too good not to take advantage of playing this Dolphins defense. It's time for them to bounce back in a big way.
Seahawks vs. Jaguars Prediction
I'm very high on the Seattle Seahawks, despite their Week 5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The advanced metrics love this team, as they rank second in the league in DVOA, coming in at third in offensive DVOA, eighth in defensive DVOA, and first in special teams DVOA. Sam Darnold has also been fantastic to start the season, leading the league in adjusted EPA per play and Completion Percentage Over Expected.
The Jaguars' defense has been solid to start their season, but their offense has been less than stellar, and Trevor Lawrence's play has been masked by their winning record. I'm shocked the Seahawks are listed at a pick'em price. I think the Jaguars are completely outclassed in this game.
Browns vs. Steelers Prediction
The time to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers is when they're getting points as underdogs. I have no interest in laying points in a Pittsburgh team that is the definition of average by almost every single metric. In terms of Aaron Rodgers, he has struggled when facing pressure this season, and now he has to face one of the best pass rushers in the league in Myles Garrett.
Dillon Gabriel looked solid against one of the best defenses in the league last week when he threw for two touchdowns against the Vikings. It's already clear he's better for this offense than Joe Flacco is, which makes the Browns an interesting underdog moving forward. I'll take the points in this AFC North duel.
Rams vs. Ravens Prediction
This is a game that I'd recommend waiting until Lamar Jackson's injury status is declared before betting on it, but as per my rules for the Road to 272 Bets, I have to place my bets on Monday, so here we are. To avoid the potential significant swing in the point spread if Jackson plays, I'm going to bet the OVER instead.
The Ravens' defense has been downright horrific to start the season, allowing 5.8 yards per play, and now they have to take on the best offense in football, as per DVOA and success rate. Matthew Stafford and company will be able to rack up points in this game, so it'll just be whether or not the Ravens' offense will contribute.
The Rams rank 20th in the league in opponent rush EPA, so if the Ravens stick to running the ball, they may find more success on offense than you'll think.
Cardinals vs. Colts Prediction
The betting market is hesitant to start pricing the Colts as an elite team in the AFC, but I'm officially hopping on the hype train. Sometimes, some teams get off to unexpected hot starts, but their underlying metrics don't match their impressive record. That's not the case for the Colts. They rank third in the league in DVOA, second in EPA, fifth in opponent EPA, and fourth in Net Yards per Play.
Now, they host a Cardinals team that is in the bottom half of the league in virtually every metric, and Kyler Murray's days could be numbered. He has explosive plays at times, but he simply isn't consistent enough across four quarters of football. This team has found several ways to lose games, and they can't afford to do that against a team as good as the Colts.
I'll lay the points.
Titans vs. Raiders Prediction
I was glad the Tennessee Titans finally came through for me last week, but I'm immediately jumping off this team. Yes, they covered and won outright against the Cardinals, but they needed a ton of help in doing so, which included a Cardinals player dropping the ball before walking in the end zone for a touchdown and an interception, turned fumble, turned touchdown for Tennessee.
Most bad teams are at least decent on one side of the football, but that's not the case for the Titans. They're bad on both offense and defense, and while the Raiders aren't exactly a good team either, their defense at least has some redeeming qualities, and their quarterback, despite having a bad start to the season, has shown he can succeed at this level.
I'm willing to buy some stock in the Raiders, forgiving them for a relatively tough schedule to start the year. The Titans will be by far the worst opponent they have faced, so they should be in line for a big win.
Bengals vs. Packers Prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals have been horrific this season. They're the worst team in the NFL in DVOA, and they're second last in Net Yards per Play at -1.5. They've been bad on both sides of the ball, and it's clear that Jake Browning isn't the guy to lead them to the promised land in Joe Burrow's absence.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off their BYE week, and the most recent memory we have of them is playing to a tie against the Dallas Cowboys, but let's not forget just how good this team is. The Packers are seventh in DVOA and third in Net Yards per Play (+1.1). You're a brave soul if you're taking the points in the Bengals at Lambeau Field this week.
49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep winning, despite the advanced metrics not liking this team. They're just 18th in the NFL in DVOA this season. Their offense has been good, but their 20th ranking on defense and 31st ranking on special teams hurts them.
People haven't talked about how bad their secondary has been this season. They rank 27th in opponent dropback EPA, 31st in opponent dropback success rate, and 21st in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.8 yards per throw.
That's a dream scenario for a Kyle Shanahan offense that can scheme up a game plan to torch a bad secondary. We're going to hope that the 49ers get some good injury news this week, and if they do, this 49ers +3 bet is going to look great come Sunday.
Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction
I was ready to bet against the Lions this week based on their recent competition, but DVOA, which adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Lions ranked as the No. 1-ranked team in the league. Not only do they rank in the top four on both offense and defense, but they're also fourth in special teams DVOA. Their defense has been far better than people give them credit for, ranking sixth in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate.
The Chiefs' win against the Ravens doesn't look quite as good as it did a couple of weeks ago. I'm not quite sold on this team belonging in the elite tier in the NFL this season, so I'll back the Lions in this spot.
Bills vs. Falcons Prediction
The Buffalo Bills were exposed on Sunday Night Football. They are an elite offense that has plenty of issues on defense. Now, they have to take on a Falcons team that's coming off a BYE that has looked extremely strong defensively to start the season. The Falcons lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA, and overall, they're fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.8. Meanwhile, the Bills are 22nd in Defensive DVOA and are ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.7.
The biggest question mark in this game is which version of Michael Penix Jr. will show up in this game, but I'm banking on his preparation being locked in after a week off. Atlanta may not win, but I'll take the 4.5 points with the Falcons on their home field on Monday Night Football.
Bears vs. Commanders Prediction
Don't let the Chicago Bears being on a BYE week after their Week 4 win against the Raiders distract you from the fact that this is a bad football team. The Bears rank 30th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.4, and they're in the bottom 10 in the league in DVOA.
I wasn't high on the Commanders coming into this season, but they've looked better than I expected, and Jayden Daniels did enough to get the win against a strong Chargers defense last week. Now, he gets to face a Bears' secondary that allows 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.
I'll lay the points with the Commanders here.
