College football season continues to motor through October and into the latter stages of its season as teams look for signature wins to bolster their respective conference title and College Football Playoff hopes.
For teams like SMU and opponents on Saturday in Texas A&M and LSU, Week 9 presents an opportunity to move closer toward being part of the 12-team postseason. Who will cover some of the biggest games on the slate? We got you covered with a pick against the spread for every Top 25 matchup.
College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 9Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick
Pick: Syracuse +6
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick
Pick: UNLV +3.5
I think Boise State is fairly overrated in the betting market heading into this matchup and will take the home underdogs.
While the Broncos' defensive line appears potent, recording the most sacks in the country, the rest of the defense is incredibly poor. The team is 96th in EPA/Play this season despite the ability to put pressure in the backfield, which means the unit is incredibly vulnerable to big plays.
Meanwhile, UNLV’s go-go offense has been incredible at ripping off explosives, top 20 in EPA/Play, which will make them a tough out both through the air and on the ground against the Broncos defense. Since going to Williams, UNLV has been at its best, averaging more than 46 points per game.
On the other side, the Rebels defense will win this game for the home underdogs. UNLV is the first defense that is inside the top 50 yards per carry allowed that Boise State will face on the year. If Jeanty isn’t able to average nearly 10 yards per carry, this will be a foreign environment for the Broncos.
If the game falls on Maddux Madsen, I’m not that confident. Madsen has three big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays while not showing an ability to push the ball down the field. Boise State’s quarterback is completing about 50% of his passes that are more than 10 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus.
I think UNLV is the more complete team and is a great bet to cover, and can win this game outright on Friday night.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ohio State -25.5
Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction and Pick
Pick: Notre Dame -13
Washington vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick
Pick: Washington +6.5
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ole Miss -20.5
Illinois vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oregon -21.5
BYU vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Pick: UCF PK
UCF appears reinvigorated with transfer Jacurri Brown taking over under center, evident in a near upset at Iowa State in Week 8.
From a pure talent perspective, UCF has the edge over BYU, who will be traveling across the country to face the Knights. Further, Gus Malzahn’s group can run all over this vulnerable BYU defense that is 94th in EPA/Rush and the bottom half of the country in yards per carry allowed.
With a big game from RJ Harvey on the ground, I expect UCF to beat BYU, handing the Cougars its first loss.
Missouri vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
Pick: Missouri +13.5
Alabama’s season is hitting a breaking point, but Missouri hasn’t inspired a ton of confidence so far this season in its marquee matchups.
So, what gives on Saturday in Tuscaloosa?
While I won’t call for the outright upset, I do believe there is cause for concern that Alabama can blowout Missouri.
The Tigers' defensive line is elite, ranking 15th in defensive line yards, and overall this is a standout unit that is allowing less than five yards per play. The Tigers have shut off the deep ball for opponents, top 40 in explosive pass defense and do an excellent job of getting off the field on third down, top 10 in third down conversion percentage allowed.
I’m concerned about this Alabama offense, but it's the defense that continues to hold this team back. Missouri’s offense hasn’t been as explosive as last season, but the team plays a clean game. Cook only has one turnover-worthy play this season, and the team has been elite on third down, tied for 10th in third and fourth down success rate.
I believe the Tigers can keep this one competitive behind methodical drives as the Crimson Tide continues to look out of sorts on both sides of the ball.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick
Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5
There is clearly a talent gap in this one, but Vanderbilt has proven week in and week out that this year’s team is truly a competitive one.
With an intermediate passing game that stresses keeping the chains moving and an elite short yardage offense, top 10 in third down conversion percentage, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to win the time of possession battle and shorten games against opponents.
The team is undefeated against the spread this season, including covering as double-digit underdogs against ranked foes like Missouri and Alabama already this season.
While Texas has the firepower to run Vanderbilt off the field and win by three scores, is it necessary? The Longhorns have battled injuries to the likes of Quinn Ewers already and have its second BYE week ahead of this one, could the team be more interested in getting on track with a win and salting the game away in a limited possession affair?
Vandy continues to outperform expectations and is in line to do it yet again against a Texas team that still has seen limited offenses that can move the ball like the Commodores have proven it can.
Florida State vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick
Pick: Miami (Florida): -21
Penn State vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick
Pick: Penn State -6.5
LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Kansas vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Kansas +10
SMU vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
Pick: SMU -11.5
Duke may be 6-1, but the team is far from it when assessing its overall quality.
Despite an easy schedule, the team ranks only 58th in net EPA/Pay and 72nd in net success rate. The defense has benefitted from a slew of limited offenses and some fortunate bounces to tip the scales in its favor.
So, I’ll be fading the home underdog on Saturday against an SMU team that is playing its best at the moment now that it has handed the offense to Kevin Jennings.
The Mustangs have been a stingy defense all season, and have scored 34 or more in four straight games.
Duke’s defense has faced one offense inside the top 60 in EPA/Play, losing to Georgia Tech by 10, and now will face a surging SMU team. I’m laying it.
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