Earning a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame may be more challenging than ever after the induction method’s change in 2024.
Beginning that year, every candidate in both the Modern-Era and Senior pool must receive 80% of the vote. With there being 50 voters on the Selection Committee (a group of media representatives and at-large delegates), that means a minimum of 40 votes. The only other way to earn induction is to be in the top three of vote-getters as a Modern-Era candidate, as every class must have at least three such enshrinees (up to five) and one Senior (up to three).
The problem? The math makes it almost impossible for borderline candidates to get into Canton.
Once the Selection Committee votes on which candidates are the 15 finalists for a given class, they then vote again to narrow it down to 10, and subsequently select the final seven candidates. From there, all 50 voters select their five Hall of Famers, resulting in a total of 250 votes.
In a class like 2028, when Tom Brady and J.J. Watt are going to be potentially unanimous selections on the first ballot, that means there are just 150 votes for five candidates, with each needing at least 40 votes.
While the bylaws require at least one other candidate to earn enshrinement, good luck getting a fourth or fifth candidate through. A prime example is the receiver logjam, with players such as Torry Holt, Steve Smith Sr. and Reggie Wayne all splitting votes due to similar careers and statistics.
Another player who could have a long road ahead? Eli Manning.
Manning won two Super Bowls, including Super Bowl XLII, when he and the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots. Still, his credentials are borderline, with only four Pro Bowls and zero All-Pro teams in 16 seasons. In 2025, Manning was one of 15 finalists but didn’t make it to the round of 10, showing that while he’s on the radar, he’s not particularly close.
With so many terrific candidates coming up as potential first- or second-ballot Hall of Famers in the next five years, Manning could be squeezed by the voting situation.
So, who makes it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame over the next five years? Let’s take our best shot at predicting the future while keeping in mind the classes likely won’t be more than five or six deep per year.
