Week 12 was an example of deja vu for my 2024 NFL betting season. We started off strong and we're sitting pretty at 5-3 after the early slate of Sunday games but then went 1-4 in the final five games to finish the week 6-7 for -1.6 units. That brings our season-to-date record to 89-87-3 for -4.18 units.
The good news is, we have the best week of the NFL season ahead of us. BYE weeks are on pause as all 32 teams are in action for Thanksgiving week. We have three games on Thursday, one on Friday, and then our usual loaded slate on Sunday which is then capped off with a Monday Night Football matchup in the AFC West.
I have my bets locked in for every game. Let's dive into them.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
NFL Week 13 Best Bets for Every GameBears vs. Lions Prediction
There's no denying the Detroit Lions are an elite football team and I'm on record saying they're the best team in the NFL right now, but a 10.5-point spread in this game is a bit too steep for my taste.
The Bears' secondary remains one of the best in the NFL, ranking inside the top five in most metrics including opponent yards per pass attempt and opponent dropback EPA. They have struggled to stop the run at times, but if they can slow down the Lions' pass attack, they're going to be in a great spot to keep the score in check.
There's something to be said for how much better Williams has been since the firing of Waldron. He posted a 95.0 quarterback rating two weeks ago against the Packers and then completed 68.1% of passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns for a 103.1 rating against one of the best defenses in the league, the Vikings, in Week 12. Now, he and the Bears offense get to face a banged-up Lions defense that's already missing Adian Hutchinson, and Alex Anzalone, and may be missing two corners in Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III.
I'll take the points with the Bears in the first Thanksgiving Day game.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction
In a game between two terrible teams, I'm almost always going to lean toward the side that's getting points, especially if the spread is longer than a field goal.
One area the Giants have a significant advantage in is the run game. Neither team can stop the run, but it's the Giants who have been a lot better doing so offensively. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and he'll get to face a Cowboys defense that's dead last in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent rush success rate.
The Cowboys also have a plethora of injuries they're dealing with this week, especially on the offensive line. The Giants' biggest strength of their team is their pass rush and with a banged-up Dallas offensive line, they're going to be able to get to Cooper Rush in the backfield.
I'll take the points with New York.
Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction
The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate in that time frame. They look as explosive and dynamic as they did early last season and should strike fear into any opponent they face the rest of the season.
Jordan Love hasn't played well enough this season to convince me they can cover this spread against the Dolphins. He ranks just 15th in EPA+CPOE adjusted amongst starting quarterbacks and 10th in adjusted EPA per play. By comparison, Tagovailoa ranks third in both those stats.
The Packers have benefited from an average turnover margin of +0.5 per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. If the Dolphins can hang on to the football, I have no doubt they can cover this spread.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs have been horrific at covering the spread this season, but this seems like the time they'll be able to do it. The Raiders offense has been arguably the worst in the NFL in 2024, ranking dead last in EPA per play. Now, I expect them to get even worse with Ridder at quarterback. Gardner Minshew has his flaws, but he can make something out of nothing at times, a trait that Ridder certainly doesn't possess.
If there's ever a team the Chiefs can have a bounce-back performance against, especially defensively, it's this year's version of the Raiders. I'll lay the points with the defending champs.
Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction
Trevor Lawrence returned to practice on Monday meaning there's a chance he returns to the lineup on Sunday to take on the Jaguars' divisional foe. That's enough to make me lean toward the Jaguars, especially considering how great their offense was looking before Lawrence went down with an injury, but their defense is going to keep me away from doing that. Instead, I'm going to take the OVER on a total that's set at a relatively low number of 43.
The Jaguars rank dead last in opponent EPA and 29th in opponent success rate while ranking dead last in opponent yards per play, allowing 6.2 yards per snap. Any game involving a defense that bad shouldn't have a total of 43.
Let's sit back and root for points as the Texans try to bounce back from a tough loss to the Titans.
Chargers vs. Falcons Prediction
It may be a short week for the Chargers, but this is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. Atlanta can hang with teams if their offense is buzzing, but that's going to be tough to do against one of the best defenses in the league.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert is set to have a field day against a Falcons secondary that ranks 25th in opponent dropback EPA and allows the highest completion percentage in the league. Opposing quarterbacks are completing an eye-popping 71.62% of passes against them.
The Chargers have been getting better as the season goes on and the Falcons have gotten worse. This is my favorite bet of the week.
Titans vs. Commanders Prediction
The Commanders are starting to implode and as I predicted last week, it could be due to their offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury. He has a history of his teams starting strong in the first half of the season and then imploding in the second. Now, that struggling offense has to take on a solid Titans defense.
Tennessee is far better than its record indicates, ranking 17th in the league in Net Yards per Play ahead and 12th in that stat over their last three games. Another sign the Commanders are imploding is their 23rd ranking in Net Yards per Play over their last three.
I'll take the points with Tennessee to cover for the second straight week.
Cardinals vs. Vikings Prediction
The Cardinals are my upset pick of the week. I'm going to look past what was an outlier performance by their offense against a strong Seahawks defense. Despite the loss, the Cardinals still rank third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games at +2.3, well above the Vikings who come in at +0.6.
The Cardinals' defense has gotten better as the season has gone on, and they put together another solid performance against the Seahawks, they just need their offense to step up.
The Vikings have regressed and aren't as good as their 9-2 record shows. Things have lined up for them in key moments throughout the season, which isn't a recipe for sustained success. They'll drop one to Arizona on Sunday.
Colts vs. Patriots Prediction
We may have been too quick to claim Anthony Richardson had been fixed after one good start in his return. He regressed to his former self against the Lions, completing just 11-of-28 passes for 172 yards. Sure, the Patriots' defense isn't nearly as good as the Lions, but the Colts' offense doesn't do anything well enough to make me want to lay a field goal on them on the road.
The Colts' defense is 23rd in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing 7.1 yards per throw, which will give Drake Maye and the Patriots enough of an opening to keep this game close.
Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction
I have been betting against the Steelers for years based on the fact their record is never as good as their underlying metrics. Two weeks ago, I finally gave in and accepted the fact that analytics get thrown out the window when the Steelers play. Whether it's great coaching by Mike Tomlin or some sort of Pittsburgh voodoo, I'm done trying to fight it.
I find myself in a similar spot in this game. The Bengals' offense is far superior and with their backs up against the wall, their season is over with a loss. The numbers tell me to lay the points with Cincinnati but instead, I choose to trust in Tomlin and his defense. If they can slow down the pass-attack of the Bengals, this game's going to come down to the wire. I'll take the field goal with the Steelers.
Seahawks vs. Jets Prediction
The Jets have continued to be an overvalued team in the betting market and despite them imploding further with rumors that they won't bring back Aaron Rodgers, they continue to value them as if they're a competent football team.
Since firing Robert Saleh after Week 5, the Jets' defense ranks 19th in opponent success rate and 29th in opponent EPA per play. Only the Giants, Panthers, and Jaguars rank worse in that stat in that time frame.
Their offense also ranks just 24th in yards per play (5.0) and 17th in EPA per play. They have a tough test in front of them in a Seattle defense that has significantly improved of late.
I'll back the Seahawks to win and cover on the road.
Rams vs. Saints Prediction
The Saints have been a completely different team since they fired Dennis Allen and they should be taken seriously when Derek Carr is healthy. They're ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play in their last three games at +0.9 and now should be fresh off a BYE week.
The Rams pass attack gets a lot of praise but I don't think they're living up to their potential. Matthew Stafford has regressed this season, ranking just 19th in both EPA+CPOE composite and adjusted EPA. That's not what we're used to seeing from him.
I'll take the points with the Saints at home.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction
Bryce Young has looked like a legitimately solid quarterback since being put back in the starting role for the Panthers. Since Week 9, when he was put back in as the starter, Young has ranked 17th in adjusted EPA per play. Those numbers aren't eye-popping, but they're significantly better than where they were last season and early this season when he ranked dead last in just about every metric you could find.
27 points against the Chiefs is no joke which makes me hesitate to lay the points on the Buccaneers, who have a far worse defense than the likes of the Chiefs and Saints. So, instead of betting on either side, I'm going to take the OVER.
The two defenses in this game rank 26th in 31st in opponent EPA per play, as well as 31st and 32nd in opponent success rate. I expect both offenses to move the ball down the field and put up points early and often.
Eagles vs. Ravens Prediction
In my opinion, the Lions and Eagles are the best two teams in the NFL and there's a wide gap between them and the rest of the NFL. That means I'll back the Eagles as underdogs against any team not named the Lions, and this is one of those spots.
Ever since making adjustments in their early season BYE, the Eagles have had one of the best defenses in football. They rank second in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate in that time frame. Now, they get to face a Ravens defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL all season.
The Eagles offense can match the Ravens offense in every area, but it's the defense that's going to make the difference. It's also worth reminding you the Ravens are the most penalized team in football, both in total penalties and penalty yards. That's going to cost them in a game against a team as good as the Eagles.
49ers vs. Bills Prediction
Brock Purdy's status is still up in the air for this game but he got back to throwing the ball at practice on Monday which is a promising sign. Dre Greenlaw is also expected to return to practice on Wednesday, opening up the door for him to return on Sunday. That's good news for a 49ers team that can't afford to lose another game.
I may die on the hill that I still think the 49ers are a good team that doesn't deserve to be this big of underdogs to the Bills. They enter Week 13 ranking third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play behind only the Ravens and Eagles. Their offense is 10th in EPA per play and their defense is 14th in opponent EPA. That's not the makeup of a team that deserves to be a touchdown underdog.
Browns vs. Broncos Prediction
I'm not changing my evaluation of this Browns team based on a win in a snowstorm against a division rival. They're still last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-1.2) and Jameis Winston is the definition of a boom-or-bust quarterback. Him having to face an elite Broncos defense on the road could spell disaster for the Browns offense.
Meanwhile, Bo Nix continues to improve, ranking 14th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE Composite and 13th in adjusted EPA since Week 7. He has found a great connection with Courtland Sutton and has made this Broncos offense one that can score in bunches.
I'll lay the points with Denver on Monday night.
