1a. It can be easy to forget about Baker Mayfield. For instance, this one time I was watching a commercial and he wasn’t even in it. But four weeks into the season, few seem to have noticed that Mayfield has taken a small step back since his strong finish to 2020. That’s because Cleveland’s front four is taking over in a way that few position groups do, and this team is very much capable of winning games 2019 49ers-style, but more on that in a second. Or, if you don't want to wait, you can just skip down to it because it's already written.
In short: Mayfield can regress so sharply that he becomes Garoppolo 2.0, and this team is still set up to become 1A to the Chiefs’ 1 in the AFC. But if Mayfield can find his groove like he did in the second half of last season, Cleveland has a chance to pair a league-best defense with a top-10 offense, and be every bit the team that the Chiefs (who they outplayed head-to-head in Week 1) are.
The good news regarding Mayfield: It’s difficult to find any glaring red flags in his play right now—he’s been a touch inaccurate, you can tell he missed Jarvis Landry last week, he isn’t yet on the same page with Odell Beckham Jr., and his protection was pretty meh in Weeks 3 and 4. (Though that was against two really good pass rushes in Chicago and Minnesota.)
There are some weird statistical anomalies—or what seem like anomalies at the moment. For the second straight season (so, since Kevin Stefanski arrived) Cleveland is better on third-and-long (7-plus yards to go) than third-and-medium (4 to 6 yards). Last year, they converted 31.7% of their third-and-longs including 35.5% when throwing, against 29.2%/27.8% on third-and-medium. This year, it’s 41.2%/34.1% on third-and-long, and just 22.2%/14.3% on third-and-medium. I don’t know why that’s a thing—Mayfield, like other short-ish quarterbacks—seems more comfortable working late into the down and attacking larger throwing windows downfield than tight windows at the short-intermediate levels where he also has to navigate throwing lanes at the line of scrimmage. But the numbers wouldn’t be that skewed without some fluke baked in.
It was also a bummer that he couldn’t put points on the board late in the opener at Kansas City, and that he was a bit rocky in the second half of a tight game in Minnesota last week, but those are awfully small sample sizes. The most likely scenario: Mayfield gradually returns to late-2020 levels and the Browns look like world-beaters going into January. Mayfield will find himself in a scenario where he needs to put together a late drive, and like most quarterbacks he’ll have less than a 50/50 shot at succeeding. But regardless, we’ll all take that infinitesimal sample size and launch 100,000 takes based on the outcome.
1b. As for that Browns defense, I thought Cleveland would need at least half a season for that back-seven to meld, especially with the linebackers being so young. However, the front four has been so dominant that is hasn’t mattered. We have seen glimpses of what Jadeveon Clowney can be over the years, and what he once again looks like in Cleveland. DT Malik Jackson and edge Takk McKinley, picked off the scrap heap, have emerged as reliable vets. Malik McDowell, a no-doubt talent and 2017 second-round pick of Seattle whose debut was delayed until this season due to a litany of off-field issues and suspensions, is suddenly a rock in the middle of that line. But the emergence of this group is largely due to the singularly dominant play of Myles Garrett.
It once again calls to mind the stubbornness of the “coverage vs. pass rush” debate. Your pass rush makes your coverage better. And vice versa, but the defensive backfield is a reactionary spot. Along with being heavily reliant on chemistry, reactionary position groups are often only as good as its weakest link, making it a much more challenging spot to address from a roster-building standpoint. However, one player can have an enormous impact in the pass rush, regardless of what his teammates do. And, in Garrett’s case, the need to send any and all help in his direction allows the rest of the unit to work one-on-one. The result right now is the most dominant defensive line in football, and one capable of leading the way in a deep playoff run.
1c. No one has ever been more photogenic than Myles Garrett was at the moment this photo was snapped:
Upon discovering this shot I immediately printed multiple copies and glued it atop all my framed wedding photos. Right on the outside of the glass. There wasn't time to open the frames.
